Ferrari Mailing List: Re: Re-retirement

[LarryT (l02turner]

they've been predicting the imminent disappearance of oil since the 20's!   As everyone knows, the amount of oil reserves is totally dependent on the price.  

But a question -- with the Arabs current ploy to shutdown the shale business, will our shale industry re-start as the price starts the inevitable climb back to previous highs once the Arabs get tired of $40/bbl oil?

LarryT

On 2/8/2015 9:50 AM, John Ashburne via Ferrari wrote:

Stories about the depletion and demise of oil have been greatly exaggerated. 

For decades. 

John

Sent from my ATT Bell Rotary Dial Phone

On Feb 8, 2015, at 9:37 AM, Adam Green <FlatCrank [at] gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks for the insider perspective.  I had assumed the thread of your post would have taken you to "and now is the time to move to an electric infrastructure by spending pennies on the dollars that will otherwise go to oil imports."  The Arab nation seems to be saber-rattling about $20 bbl, but the market seems to think that the current $50.  As a broad generalization, "the world" has ample oil already out of the ground to suffice for centuries of industrial applications -- certainly long enough to transition most products to plant-derived materials.  It's the use of oil as the basis for "everything" that's unsustainable.  It's not by good business or sound science that we drive cars burning oil for fuel, constructed of oil, rolling on tires of oil, across roads of oil ... all of which is designed to wear out and require frequent renewal.  

Adam

On Sun, Feb 8, 2015 at 5:27 AM, Rick Lindsay <richardolindsay [at] gmail.com> wrote:

Hi Friends,

Those who know me well know that after 30+ years of oil exploration, I retired. That was two years ago. A year ago I was asked to return to the exploration business to mentor new geoscientists. Colleges teach geology, geophysics and petroleum engineering but they don't teach how to find oil! For the last 12 months, that has been my job, part-time: teaching younglings how to find oil.

Given the current Arab manipilation of oil prices, hiring is frozen and most oil companies are laying off mid-career scientists and engineers. Even more so  with the service companies who support the oil industry. I volunteered to resign to perhaps save one job for someone who really needs it. The company countered with an offer for me to go on-call, rather than being there every day. That worked for me.

So starting last week, I re-retired - only to be 'called in' for next week! The staff is reducing across the industry but the work load isn't! We saw this same thing happen in the early '70s and again in the mid '80s (caused by the same people, BTW)! Layoffs in the '80s put a huge notch in the demographics of today's exploration staff. We suffer from that today. Those who survived the '80s layoffs are retired or are retiring today. Left behind is a whole crop of new, bright scientists with no exploration experience! And the senior staff is retiring faster than the younglings are being trained. With layoffs happening again, even the mid-career experience is exiting! The industry is destined to be plagued by the same mistakes made earlier. And with today's  intermediate staff layoffs, and senior staff retirements, the hard working but clueless younglings are left in charge. The Arabs win again.

So where does this take us? In contrast with previous market manipulations, the difference today is with unconventional resources, the oil shale plays that promised to make the U.S. energy independent. That oil is HARD to find and at $50/bbl, its uneconomic to produce. The big companies  will go on hold, leaving the oil in the ground while the smaller companies go out of business. And small companies with more reasonable operating costs, or cost-to-find, as we call it, are the backbone of the oil shale business. With them gone, the oil stays in the shale and the Saudis once again dominate the market.

Will we survive? Sure. Will we pay even higher oil prices in the future? Almost certainly! And although the media is fixated on oil for fuel, almost the whole chemical industry is also petroleum based, especially with respect to plastics and synthetic rubber! Yea, they win and we're gonna' pay.

Of course, I get more time to play in the garage. Sadly, if my mid-career Columbian geophysicist looses her job and therefore her sponsor, she has to be out of the country within 24 hours! (More like 30 days in practice because the INS is so inefficient.) Its just a shame that she obeyed the law, came here legally, and obeyed all the rules. Otherwise, she could get amnesty, free health care, a driver's license and a free ride on the U.S. tax payers! As it is, she'll take her scientific education and experience back to Bogota.

Yea, they win again. And we loose again, while we blindly celebrate cheap fillups... for a few months.

-rick

Happy Connecting. Sent from my Sprint Samsung Galaxy S® 5

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