Hello Friends,
As with most quoted values, oil prices and remaining reserves depend upon the intent of the report and the audience for whom they are intended.
Is there an infinite supply of petroleum on Earth? No. What's here or was here is just the remains of the biomass from millions of years ago. And there in lies the issue of 'time'. Hydrocarbons are still being generated today. As heat and pressure in the earth 'cook' the kerogens (squashed biomass from ages ago), oil is produced. At higher temperatures, those kerogens are naturally 'cracked' to gas, leaving behind the tars or heavy, complex hydrocarbons. In both cases the hydrocarbon fluid, which is less dense than water, then migrates toward the surface, seeping through porous rocks (carrier beds) and through diffusion. This all happens at the microscopic level. For a hydrocarbon accumulation to occur, five basic conditions must be met:
- A kerogen source must exist at the right temperature and pressure, to cause oil or gas to be expelled.
- The right geometry of rock layers and hydraulic pressure must exist for the hydrocarbons to migrate to a structural trap.
- A trap must exist into which the hydrocarbons may migrate.
- The rocks within the the trap geometry must be adequately porous to hold the hydrocarbons.
- The trap must be sealed, both vertically and laterally, in order to keep the hydrocarbons contained within the trap.
When all five of these conditions are met, a hydrocarbon accumulation may exist. Getting it out of the rocks is another story. Sometimes that's easy, given enough money. Witness Arab oil. Sometimes its impossible, with current technology. For example, until recently, production of oil shale was uneconomic, if possible at all.
So what does this say about the world's supply of oil? Within the span of human existance, it is essentially finite. Given the universal view, as long as biomass is collecting the sun's energy and geology keeps burying it, the supply is all but infinite. We just won't be here to enjoy it.
In the shorter view, oil reserves reported by the Saudis change with the whim of the market. They still have a whole lot of oil, but not as much as they would have us believe. The critical issue is that middle-east oil is cheap and easy to produce. Elsewhere in the world, one might argue that the 'easy oil' has already been found. We're exploring in more difficult places and to greater depths. Unfortunately, greater depth also means higher temperature. And as described above, kerogen cracks to gas rather than oil at high temperature. Given the relative values of oil versus gas, deep gas reserved are often not economic to pursue - today.
No one knows how much oil is left in the earth. What we do know is that the 'easy oil' has been found, independent of who owns it or how much is left. It is up to us, the market, to decide whether we simply rely on the cheap, easy, short-term solution of buying Saudi oil (Remember 1973?) or do we continue to explore and produce the more difficult objectives like shale oil in the U.S. or heavy oil from the Canadian tar sands? Its a question of time and the ultimate objective. I like a cheap fillup as much as the next guy but I wonder who will find tomorrow's fillup after the laid off geologists and geophysicists find careers in other fields. And therein lies the time factor. Define 'tomorrow'. If you mean Thursday, its Arab oil in your tank. If tomorrow means your children's and grand children's days, who knows?!
I heard an interesting statement on NPR the other day. The report stated that it would require the fermentation to alcohol of 70% of ALL the vegitation on earth to replace 10% of the energy supplied by oil-based hydrocarbons! Alcohol, as a fuel is just not a viable answer, or even a stop-gap. Solar to electricity is a better plan, if comparitively low energy density. But can one lubricate with electricity? And can one make the plastics and synthetic rubber we depend upon from sunlight? No. The world's economy and our very lifestyles depend upon oil, like it or not. The alternative is a return to primitive agrarian lifestyles without iPhones. Okay, there is a silver lining.
-rick
Happy Connecting. Sent from my Sprint Samsung Galaxy S® 5
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