Ferrari Mailing List: Re: Ferraris-online.com Newsletter - 1972 Ferrari 246 GT> s/n 03000 - Price reduction

[Erik Nielsen (judge4re]

I wouldn't expect them to drop below the price of a new Cayman/Boxster.  Going through the paperwork on my 365, it dropped 76% after the crash of 1989/90.  About the same hit a gizmo laden scheisswagen takes in 5 years of depreciation.

I'm an end user, future value is something for my four year old to worry about...

Erik

Sent from my iPad

On Dec 14, 2015, at 6:19 PM, LS <lashdeep [at] yahoo.com> wrote:

Either one...then both together...

 

LSJ

central

wines-spirits   est 1934

625 e street nw

washington, dc 20004

centralwines.com

facebook.com/CentralLiquors

202-737-2800

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From: Erik Nielsen <judge4re [at] gmail.com>
To: LS <lashdeep [at] yahoo.com>
Cc: The FerrariList <ferrari [at] ferrarilist.com>
Sent: Monday, December 14, 2015 7:02 PM
Subject: Re: [Ferrari] Ferraris-online.com Newsletter - 1972 Ferrari 246 GT> s/n 03000 - Price reduction

When you say crash, are you talking the next market correction or boomers fall into the brass era collector current status (i.e. dead)?

Sent from my iPad

On Dec 14, 2015, at 2:12 PM, LS <lashdeep [at] yahoo.com> wrote:

So, when the music stops, will $400k Dinos "crash" to $200k?

Or will they go back to $100k? Or $50k?

Anyone have historical data on how much of a crash the last three cycles experienced?

 

LSJ

central

wines-spirits   est 1934

625 e street nw

washington, dc 20004

centralwines.com

facebook.com/CentralLiquors

202-737-2800

---

From: Erik Nielsen <judge4re [at] gmail.com>
To: LS <lashdeep [at] yahoo.com>
Cc: The FerrariList <ferrari [at] ferrarilist.com>
Sent: Monday, December 14, 2015 2:52 PM
Subject: Re: [Ferrari] Ferraris-online.com Newsletter - 1972 Ferrari 246 GT> s/n 03000 - Price reduction

Yes, same one.

On Mon, Dec 14, 2015 at 1:51 PM, Rick Moseley <ramosel [at] pacbell.net> wrote:

Erik,

Is that the Matsuda of the Porsche Museum in Japan?

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From: Erik Nielsen <judge4re [at] gmail.com>
To: Rick Moseley <ramosel [at] pacbell.net>
Cc: The FerrariList <ferrari [at] ferrarilist.com>
Sent: Sunday, December 13, 2015 8:18 AM
Subject: Re: [Ferrari] Ferraris-online.com Newsletter - 1972 Ferrari 246 GT> s/n 03000 - Price reduction

The question is what happens when this generation of hyper collectors starts pushing up daisies?

Bardinon (even Enzo said he didn’t need a museum because of this collection) has started to liquidate.

Matsuda-san has been selling off for years, driven by health issues.  The Sports Car Garden has been closed for some time.

Lauren will make sure that the cars stay in the family.  Assuming RL figures out how to keep the lights on and bring in the money.  Damn public companies and investors that expect and demand growth.

Countless European collections have started to break up due to financial issues.

Rick is absolutely right that the collectors don’t deal with the auction houses or brokers, after all, why pay a transaction fee (buying and/or selling) if you know the other party can just wire the money?  And to further his comment, if it is on TV, it’s aspirational and mass market.  More keeping up with the Joneses that drives consumer spending...

The investors are chasing gains, which means they are relying on the next sucker in line.  God forbid they are holding the bag when the music stops.

YMMV,

Erik

On Dec 13, 2015, at 9:54 AM, Rick Moseley <ramosel [at] pacbell.net> wrote:

After years of historic racing, I have a slightly different perspective.  I do not consider myself in the upper stratosphere by any means... But when you race with the "bucks up boys" you talk with them, have lunch or dinner with them, etc.  

Don't get me wrong, I've met Mr. S a few times and he's a good chap.  But the significant, rare or quality cars usually change hands via a handshake over a catered lunch on paper plates at race track -race  car or otherwise.   Years ago, I personally watched a mechanic get sent back and forth between tables 5 or 6 times and watched a 917 change hands. Those are the collectors. When it comes to their cars, money is of little concern. 

Below the collectors are the investors.  If they are playing in this realm, the cars usually go to auction.  Money (or lack thereof) plays a huge role.  And by "lack thereof" I mean some who can afford to drop a cool million on a car but can't write a carefree $6M check at lunch or write down his Amex Black card number on a napkin with bbq stains to seal a deal with a wink. 

Below that are the dabblers...  Rarely (but it happens) do the significant, rare or quality cars trickle down here.   Whatever is left usually has some issue... And it doesn't take much for a serial number to lose favor with the 2 groups above.  These are the cars you often find at a broker... Usually for one reason or another.  Sometimes an unknowing relative inherits a top car and offs it quickly and a gem enters this realm.  Or, a top car's owner goes into distress and brokers it for a quick liquidation.  

A subset of the dabblers are those selling cars to friends at ridiculously low prices to shelter them from divorce.  This has a negative impact on the market too.  

I think shows on TV have also affected this market.  I've had several kids and wives tell me they were told by "someone" to call Wayne because they saw him on TV.   Wayne is a good guy, but his show has resulted in a lot of great cars being dumped in his lap.  

So when all the above is in play, it's really hard for Mr. S or Fantasy Junction to get stock.  Didn't Cavallo recently go under?

So that's just one view, and it's based on observation, not market analysis... But I could be wrong. 

Rick

On Dec 13, 2015, at 6:39 AM, Alexander Ishii <alexishii [at] mindspring.com> wrote:


Normally I just lurk, but some folks will recognize me, and know that I've
been around awhile...

Conflicting info?...:

Some number of years ago, I was living the "some people have a house, but I
have this car" scenario, and was simultaneously looking for either some real
estate, or a Daytona.  Made a number of fair offers on both, but it was a
house offer that got accepted first.

This is in the height of the financial crisis, so Daytonas could be "had all
day" for $275k (to use Clyde's terminology), but I saw a couple of perfectly
serviceable cars (with some major issues) trade in the $225k (or even lower)
range.

In the intervening years, I've continued to monitor the situation (hope
springs eternal for some great financial success), and the prices have more
than doubled, and many would say tripled.

One thing I've noticed though is that for many years now, inventory has
essentially been "zero".  If one talked to any of the established brokers,
one found that many did not even have a line on an available car; they would
all say "how much are you offering?  I can go through my rolodex of owners,
and see if anyone will sell".

At times, Mike S. was only listing "Craigslist" stuff (friendly jab at
Porsches and Corvettes); so called "Enzo Era Ferraris"?  Forget it...
nada...

Now perhaps in later life, Mike is taking it easy, but man, he used to be a
real rain-maker, so if he did not have cars for sale, things probably were
tight.

Now to me, it seems plausible that all the cars were being held on the
assumption that their value was still on the rise, so the question becomes
when do the holders start to lose faith and start trying to get out?  I've
been smiling at the latest mailings from Mike S., because (1) it seems he is
starting to have some inventory, and (2) it seems people are testing the
high-end of prices, and finding no buyers (hence the price reductions).

Perhaps with some luck (from my perspective), prices are on their way down
finally.

Mind you, I don't see being able to afford a stable-mate for my QV anytime
soon, but it took a long time to prices to go this high, so maybe it will
take a while for them to come down... :)

Personally, I would not put too much stock in the article, because the
nature of "bubbles" is that they are always biggest before they burst...

Besides, how much cred can you have when you cite a

  "Ferrari 275GPB4"

as a potential investment target?  :)

  -- Alex
  84 Nero Metallic QV

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Message: 1
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 2015 07:24:02 +0000
From: Peter Rychel <dino308gt4 [at] hotmail.com>
To: LS <lashdeep [at] yahoo.com>, The FerrariList <ferrari [at] ferrarilist.com>
Subject: Re: [Ferrari] Fw: Ferraris-online.com Newsletter - 1972
Ferrari 246 GT s/n 03000 - Price reduction
Message-ID:
<BLUPR19MB0225EAFD6CDCF580B7E765E7DFEC0 [at] BLUPR19MB0225.namprd19.prod.outlook.co
m>

Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"

Conflicting info?...:


http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/05/jay-leno-wannabes-classic-car-market-goes-into-
overdrive.html


Peter

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