Re: General Ferrari/exotic market cycle
From: Erik Nielsen (judge4regmail.com)
Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2016 16:58:53 -0700 (PDT)
You should see the ratty 308s that are coming out of the woodwork now.  Looks like they are being saved rather than parted out. 

If the market really does crash, I wouldn't mind a 330 GTC and a 275 GTS.  But I'm not holding my breath.  Pretty sure the spares for them will never be cheaper than ridiculous.

And I wouldn't point any blame at Leno, he's not into Ferraris.  He actually has more bitsas and modern replicas than most know.  But there are hoarders out there.  Going to be fun to watch when the next generation isn't interested or needs to sell off to pay the tax man.  When the music stops, I think there will be more chairs than asses. 

Sent from my iPad

On Mar 20, 2016, at 6:42 PM, John Ashburne via Ferrari <ferrari [at] ferrarilist.com> wrote:

Look on the bright side:  all these cars are now restored and we can pick them up for pennies on the dollar in a few years. 

My 400i was under 30% of its peak price in 1990 by the time I bought it in 1998. 

John

Sent from my ATT Bell Rotary Dial Phone

On Mar 20, 2016, at 6:15 PM, clyderomerof4 [at] gmail.com wrote:

The 30 year old now crowd  doesnt care about old stuff
New money doesn't either
Just look at the age of who's wining all those bullshit concours across the entire spectrum 
And worse yet look who's buying the old muscle car shit at the high end auctions
No one from the dot comm SFO crowd is buying into that shit either 
Even the yang car GTR Nissan is struggling with sales with then tattoo pierced nose crowd !
The Jay Leneos of the world have destroyed the market with there wealth 
I would love for his garage to burn to the ground with no loss of life 
Yes I am hating here but it's guys like him that alter market forces to the average joe so that he or she could no longer afford the car they lusted after 
That's where the old man Ferrari was right back in the day 
He sold the car to those who deserved it !
Because you had the money didn't mean you had the car !

Like Erik said 
We could be talking about golf !
Ugh what a waste that would be 


In victory you deserve Champagne
In defeat you need it!

     

Scars are Tattoos with better stories !

If you follow all the rules
You miss all the fun! 

If you have no enemies, you have no character !

Clyde Romero    


Confidentiality Notice:  This e-mail ( including attachments ) is covered by the Electronic Communications Privacy Act, 18 U. S. C., Sections 2510-2521, and is intended only for the persons or entity to which it is addressed, and may contain confidential or privileged material.  Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure, dissemination, copying, forwarding or distribution is prohibited.
This email transmission, and any documents, files or previous email messages attached to it, may contain confidential information that is priviledged.  If you are not the intended recipient, or a person responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the information containes in or attached to this message is STRICTLY PROHIBITED.  If you have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by reply e-mail at Clyde.romerof4 [at] gmail.com or  by telephone at (678 6419932)and destroy the original transmission and its attachments without reading them or saving them to disk.

On Mar 20, 2016, at 1:31 PM, Erik Nielsen <judge4re [at] gmail.com> wrote:

30 years from now, most of the “expensive” cars from the 60’s will come back to reality, those that remember them in the day and lusted after them will be dead.  Look what happened to brass era cars.   Even pre-war cars have a very limited following, unless they still have a standing class at major concours events.

Things will also get more automated, maybe you will not be able to drive an analog machine on a  road with a bunch of self driving boxes.  I’m expecting to see the big cities in Europe move to electric only vehicles in the next decade and a half, “obsolete” cars will be forced off the road in major metropolitan areas.

Then it becomes an issue of getting spares.  3d printing should help, but with no spares widely available (through lack of demand), more of these things will fall further down the deferred maintenance slope, never to recover.

There is no such thing as cheap, all of these cars require proper feeding and watering, and there are only so many people that want to get into the hobby.  Especially when you consider the quality of what is available new for less coin.

Technology and competition keep moving the needle, the new stuff is amazing, but I’m not sure how sustainable they will be.  Highly doubt a shade tree mechanic will be able to afford to keep something with ceramic brakes going.  

True petrol heads could give a rat’s ass about resale prices; screw the speculators buying stuff they don’t understand.  If the tax regime changes (and don’t think it is just fans watching the prices), I’m guessing more and more of this stuff will end up hidden in farms...


My uncle has a country place
That no one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the Motor Law
And now on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the turbine freight
To far outside the wire where my
White-haired uncle waits

Jump to the ground as the turbo slows
To cross the borderline
Run like the wind as excitement shivers
Up and down my spine
But down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me
An old machine
For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new
Has been his dearest dream

I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant Red Barchetta
From a better vanished time
We'll fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime

Wind 
In my hair 
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge

Well-oiled leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air

Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware

Suddenly ahead of me
Across the mountainside
A gleaming alloy air-car
Shoots towards me two lanes wide
Oh, I spin around with shrieking tires
To run the deadly race
Go screaming through the valley
As another joins the chase

Ride like the wind
Straining the limits
Of machine and man
Laughing out loud with fear and hope
I've got a desperate plan

At the one-lane bridge
I leave the giants stranded
At the riverside
Race back to the farm
To dream with my uncle
At the fireside

But I suppose it could be worse, we could be talking about golf.

Erik

On Mar 20, 2016, at 11:41 AM, Fellippe Galletta <fellippe.galletta [at] gmail.com> wrote:

Talking to a friend about the Ferrari market and he asked if there was any cheap ones left. "Cheap" defined I guess as under $50-60k, or

I replied that the Dino 308 GT/4, Mondial, and maybe the 348 are left....if that.

I recalled that the late '80s had $100k 308s, and everything else was equally expensive -- we're not even BACK to that price level, and inflation means $100k 308s in '88 were a lot more, still.

Back in our college days ('97-'01), I recall Daytonas were low $100s, Countach 400S was around $50k, Testarossa a bit more than that, Dinos were probably $70k. Boxers were hovering around low 100s. 

Maybe the best one was that F40s and 288 GTOs were around $250-300k. So if that stabilized for a long time, mere mortals could have one. Now? hmmm. 

Do you guys think in 5 or 10 years (or 20. 30), prices will re-stabilize to something normal? 

Another interesting thing to consider is the almost unanimous universal movement of markets and perhaps the changing perception of certain cars based on their price.

For instance, are Countachs that much cooler now that nobody can afford them? Are Testarossas really worth that much when you couldn't give them away 8 years ago?

Back when the 355 was still being made, I saw a black Daytona coupe pull up in front of a restaurant and got all excited. I made the crazy statement that I would take one over a 355. Now it seems like a "duh" sorta thing. But not back then. 

I've noticed that even the generic enthusiast is starting to get it regarding these newer exotics. You used to have to tell them why the older cars were special and they'd laugh at you. Now they're the ones spewing it like it's only a recent discovery. 

Were we ahead of our time? Haha.

:)

FG
_________________________________________________________________
To unsubscribe or modify your subscription options, please visit:
http://lists.ferrarilist.com/mailman/options/ferrari/judge4re%40gmail.com

Sponsored by BooyahMedia.com
and F1 Headlines
http://www.F1Headlines.com/

_________________________________________________________________
To unsubscribe or modify your subscription options, please visit:
http://lists.ferrarilist.com/mailman/options/ferrari/clyderomerof4%40gmail.com

Sponsored by BooyahMedia.com
and F1 Headlines
http://www.F1Headlines.com/
_________________________________________________________________
To unsubscribe or modify your subscription options, please visit:
http://lists.ferrarilist.com/mailman/options/ferrari/jashburne%40aol.com

Sponsored by BooyahMedia.com
and F1 Headlines
http://www.F1Headlines.com/
_________________________________________________________________
To unsubscribe or modify your subscription options, please visit:
http://lists.ferrarilist.com/mailman/options/ferrari/judge4re%40gmail.com

Sponsored by BooyahMedia.com
and F1 Headlines
http://www.F1Headlines.com/

Results generated by Tiger Technologies Web hosting using MHonArc.