Ferrari Mailing List: Re: General Ferrari/exotic market cycle

[Erik Nielsen (judge4re]

30 years from now, most of the “expensive” cars from the 60’s will come back to reality, those that remember them in the day and lusted after them will be dead.  Look what happened to brass era cars.   Even pre-war cars have a very limited following, unless they still have a standing class at major concours events.

Things will also get more automated, maybe you will not be able to drive an analog machine on a  road with a bunch of self driving boxes.  I’m expecting to see the big cities in Europe move to electric only vehicles in the next decade and a half, “obsolete” cars will be forced off the road in major metropolitan areas.

Then it becomes an issue of getting spares.  3d printing should help, but with no spares widely available (through lack of demand), more of these things will fall further down the deferred maintenance slope, never to recover.

There is no such thing as cheap, all of these cars require proper feeding and watering, and there are only so many people that want to get into the hobby.  Especially when you consider the quality of what is available new for less coin.

Technology and competition keep moving the needle, the new stuff is amazing, but I’m not sure how sustainable they will be.  Highly doubt a shade tree mechanic will be able to afford to keep something with ceramic brakes going.  

True petrol heads could give a rat’s ass about resale prices; screw the speculators buying stuff they don’t understand.  If the tax regime changes (and don’t think it is just fans watching the prices), I’m guessing more and more of this stuff will end up hidden in farms...

My uncle has a country place
That no one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the Motor Law
And now on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the turbine freight
To far outside the wire where my
White-haired uncle waits

Jump to the ground as the turbo slows
To cross the borderline
Run like the wind as excitement shivers
Up and down my spine
But down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me
An old machine
For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new
Has been his dearest dream

I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant Red Barchetta
From a better vanished time
We'll fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime

Wind 
In my hair 
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge

Well-oiled leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air

Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware

Suddenly ahead of me
Across the mountainside
A gleaming alloy air-car
Shoots towards me two lanes wide
Oh, I spin around with shrieking tires
To run the deadly race
Go screaming through the valley
As another joins the chase

Ride like the wind
Straining the limits
Of machine and man
Laughing out loud with fear and hope
I've got a desperate plan

At the one-lane bridge
I leave the giants stranded
At the riverside
Race back to the farm
To dream with my uncle
At the fireside

But I suppose it could be worse, we could be talking about golf.

Erik

On Mar 20, 2016, at 11:41 AM, Fellippe Galletta <fellippe.galletta [at] gmail.com> wrote:

Talking to a friend about the Ferrari market and he asked if there was any cheap ones left. "Cheap" defined I guess as under $50-60k, or

I replied that the Dino 308 GT/4, Mondial, and maybe the 348 are left....if that.

I recalled that the late '80s had $100k 308s, and everything else was equally expensive -- we're not even BACK to that price level, and inflation means $100k 308s in '88 were a lot more, still.

Back in our college days ('97-'01), I recall Daytonas were low $100s, Countach 400S was around $50k, Testarossa a bit more than that, Dinos were probably $70k. Boxers were hovering around low 100s. 

Maybe the best one was that F40s and 288 GTOs were around $250-300k. So if that stabilized for a long time, mere mortals could have one. Now? hmmm. 

Do you guys think in 5 or 10 years (or 20. 30), prices will re-stabilize to something normal? 

Another interesting thing to consider is the almost unanimous universal movement of markets and perhaps the changing perception of certain cars based on their price.

For instance, are Countachs that much cooler now that nobody can afford them? Are Testarossas really worth that much when you couldn't give them away 8 years ago?

Back when the 355 was still being made, I saw a black Daytona coupe pull up in front of a restaurant and got all excited. I made the crazy statement that I would take one over a 355. Now it seems like a "duh" sorta thing. But not back then. 

I've noticed that even the generic enthusiast is starting to get it regarding these newer exotics. You used to have to tell them why the older cars were special and they'd laugh at you. Now they're the ones spewing it like it's only a recent discovery. 

Were we ahead of our time? Haha.

:)

FG

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