Ferrari Mailing List: Re: Fw: Ferraris-online.com Newsletter - 1972 Ferrari 246 GT> s/n 03000 - Price reduction

[Alexander Ishii (alexishii]

Hi Rick,

Sure, I think everything you say sounds very plausible (no experience at all
with ultra-end car buying).  I was talking about the market for more
pedestrian machines; Boxers, Daytonas, maybe even so far down as "run of the
mill" 275s and higher production 250s.  By lofty standards, none of these
things are rare, and I don't imagine that anyone really into it is going to
be interested in them.

This is the Mike S. territory, as I was talking about it.  At least for his
website anyway (perhaps Mike does get involved in searches for really
unusual things, but as you said, I would think most folks in the market
would know where to look).

Back when I was shopping, everyone had cars "in stock", and at least now one
is starting to see some broker listings.  To me, that feels like a change
from the last few years.

    -- Alex
       Nero Metallic QV


on 12/13/15 10:54 AM, Rick Moseley at ramosel [at] pacbell.net wrote:

> After years of historic racing, I have a slightly different perspective.  I do
> not consider myself in the upper stratosphere by any means... But when you
> race with the "bucks up boys" you talk with them, have lunch or dinner with
> them, etc.  
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I've met Mr. S a few times and he's a good chap.  But the
> significant, rare or quality cars usually change hands via a handshake over a
> catered lunch on paper plates at race track -race  car or otherwise.   Years
> ago, I personally watched a mechanic get sent back and forth between tables 5
> or 6 times and watched a 917 change hands. Those are the collectors. When it
> comes to their cars, money is of little concern.
> 
> Below the collectors are the investors.  If they are playing in this realm,
> the cars usually go to auction.  Money (or lack thereof) plays a huge role.
> And by "lack thereof" I mean some who can afford to drop a cool million on a
> car but can't write a carefree $6M check at lunch or write down his Amex Black
> card number on a napkin with bbq stains to seal a deal with a wink.
> 
> Below that are the dabblers...  Rarely (but it happens) do the significant,
> rare or quality cars trickle down here.   Whatever is left usually has some
> issue... And it doesn't take much for a serial number to lose favor with the 2
> groups above.  These are the cars you often find at a broker... Usually for
> one reason or another.  Sometimes an unknowing relative inherits a top car and
> offs it quickly and a gem enters this realm.  Or, a top car's owner goes into
> distress and brokers it for a quick liquidation.
> 
> A subset of the dabblers are those selling cars to friends at ridiculously low
> prices to shelter them from divorce.  This has a negative impact on the market
> too.  
> 
> I think shows on TV have also affected this market.  I've had several kids and
> wives tell me they were told by "someone" to call Wayne because they saw him
> on TV.   Wayne is a good guy, but his show has resulted in a lot of great cars
> being dumped in his lap.
> 
> So when all the above is in play, it's really hard for Mr. S or Fantasy
> Junction to get stock.  Didn't Cavallo recently go under?
> 
> So that's just one view, and it's based on observation, not market analysis...
> But I could be wrong.
> 
> Rick
> 
>> On Dec 13, 2015, at 6:39 AM, Alexander Ishii <alexishii [at] mindspring.com>
>> wrote:
>> 
>> 
>> Normally I just lurk, but some folks will recognize me, and know that I've
>> been around awhile...
>> 
>>> Conflicting info?...:
>> 
>> Some number of years ago, I was living the "some people have a house, but I
>> have this car" scenario, and was simultaneously looking for either some real
>> estate, or a Daytona.  Made a number of fair offers on both, but it was a
>> house offer that got accepted first.
>> 
>> This is in the height of the financial crisis, so Daytonas could be "had all
>> day" for $275k (to use Clyde's terminology), but I saw a couple of perfectly
>> serviceable cars (with some major issues) trade in the $225k (or even lower)
>> range.
>> 
>> In the intervening years, I've continued to monitor the situation (hope
>> springs eternal for some great financial success), and the prices have more
>> than doubled, and many would say tripled.
>> 
>> One thing I've noticed though is that for many years now, inventory has
>> essentially been "zero".  If one talked to any of the established brokers,
>> one found that many did not even have a line on an available car; they would
>> all say "how much are you offering?  I can go through my rolodex of owners,
>> and see if anyone will sell".
>> 
>> At times, Mike S. was only listing "Craigslist" stuff (friendly jab at
>> Porsches and Corvettes); so called "Enzo Era Ferraris"?  Forget it...
>> nada...
>> 
>> Now perhaps in later life, Mike is taking it easy, but man, he used to be a
>> real rain-maker, so if he did not have cars for sale, things probably were
>> tight.
>> 
>> Now to me, it seems plausible that all the cars were being held on the
>> assumption that their value was still on the rise, so the question becomes
>> when do the holders start to lose faith and start trying to get out?  I've
>> been smiling at the latest mailings from Mike S., because (1) it seems he is
>> starting to have some inventory, and (2) it seems people are testing the
>> high-end of prices, and finding no buyers (hence the price reductions).
>> 
>> Perhaps with some luck (from my perspective), prices are on their way down
>> finally.
>> 
>> Mind you, I don't see being able to afford a stable-mate for my QV anytime
>> soon, but it took a long time to prices to go this high, so maybe it will
>> take a while for them to come down... :)
>> 
>> Personally, I would not put too much stock in the article, because the
>> nature of "bubbles" is that they are always biggest before they burst...
>> 
>> Besides, how much cred can you have when you cite a
>> 
>>    "Ferrari 275GPB4"
>> 
>> as a potential investment target?  :)
>> 
>>    -- Alex
>>    84 Nero Metallic QV
>> 
>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> 
>>> Message: 1
>>> Date: Sun, 13 Dec 2015 07:24:02 +0000
>>> From: Peter Rychel <dino308gt4 [at] hotmail.com>
>>> To: LS <lashdeep [at] yahoo.com>, The FerrariList <ferrari [at] 
>>> ferrarilist.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [Ferrari] Fw: Ferraris-online.com Newsletter - 1972
>>> Ferrari 246 GT s/n 03000 - Price reduction
>>> Message-ID:
>>> <BLUPR19MB0225EAFD6CDCF580B7E765E7DFEC0 [at] 
>>> BLUPR19MB0225.namprd19.prod.outlook.
>>> co
>>> m>
>>> 
>>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>>> 
>>> Conflicting info?...:
>>> 
>>> 
>>> http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/05/jay-leno-wannabes-classic-car-market-goes-int
>>> o-
>>> overdrive.html
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Peter
>> 
>> 
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