Ferrari Mailing List: Re: Illinois speed traps

[LarryT (l02turner]

Ken Wrote <<The price of the nearest crude oil futures contract
closed at $146.60 in early July. It closed at $116.93 on Wednesday.
That's a 20.2% decline... and Wal>>

All those speculators who were holding long contracts gambling on the "Sure 
Thing" that oil prices would keep going up and now holding worthess pieces 
(virtual pieces) of paper most thought would be worth a small fortune!   It 
still may be worth something if the price goes back up soon enoguh but 
there's some nervous people out there!-

As far as how much oil is where and who owns it, take a look at the 
attached.  The guy who assembled this info is listed at the bottom.

Enjoy -
Larry T (66 MGB, 74 911, 91 300D)
www.youroil.net for Oil Analysis and Weber Parts
Test Results http://members.rennlist.com/oil
PORSCHE POSTERS!  youroil.net
800-583-8601
Weber Carb Info http://members.rennlist.com/webercarbs



----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Ken Rentiers" <rentiers [at] me.com>
To: "Larry Turner" <l02turner [at] comcast.net>
Cc: "The FerrariList" <ferrari [at] ferrarilist.com>
Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2008 2:53 PM
Subject: Re: [Ferrari] Illinois speed traps



On Aug 9, 2008, at 1:09 PM, philville dejazzd.com wrote:

> This list is a rich and diverse soap box, I learn every day....what
> I learn I  don't  always know, but then I am not sure that I care, I
> just like learning.
> Phil

Re Oil Prices: you won't see this in the press: they only publish bad
news.

The Most Astounding News You'll Hear About Oil This Week
By Ian Davis

It's official... Crude oil has entered a bear market.

OK, I know... filling up the SUV will still shrink the wallet. And I
know the long-term trend in oil is still up.

But consider this: The price of the nearest crude oil futures contract
closed at $146.60 in early July. It closed at $116.93 on Wednesday.
That's a 20.2% decline... and Wall Street considers a 20% decline in
any asset a "bear market" correction.

I believe the full correction will take months to develop. Speculative
fever takes a long time to "wash away."

Also, the three previous oil corrections lasted an average 1.2 years.
They've seen crude fall 61.8%, 53%, and 34.5%, respectively. As the
bull market has developed, these corrections have become progressively
shorter. But I still think we've got some time before this one comes
to a close.

To figure out the best places for our money during periods of
declining oil prices, I've crunched the numbers for every U.S. stock
market sector during the three previous oil corrections. Here's what
I've found...

For starters, the entire stock market tends to perform well as oil
prices fall. Only 11 of the 101 sectors had a negative average return
during the three corrections. Also, only two sectors fell all three
times: the oil and gas exploration and production sector, and the oil
equipment and services sector.

While 90 of the 101 sectors did well on average during past oil
corrections, only 36 sectors rose during every oil correction. It will
surprise you who did the best...

Best Performers During the Three Oil Corrections

Sector

Average Return

Worst Return

Reinsurance

36.8%

19.0%

Furnishings

32.3%

12.4%

Waste & Disposal Services

29.4%

11.8%

Conventional thinking says automobiles and airlines should be on the
list. But these sectors only rose during the first and third
corrections. During the second correction, they both plummeted.

The second correction occurred during the dot-com crash. Both
automobiles and airlines are highly cyclical. When money is tight,
people don't buy new cars or take as many flights, even if falling oil
prices makes it cheaper to do so.

So why do reinsurance, furnishings, and waste companies do well as oil
falls? Let's look at them one at a time...

• Reinsurance is insurance for insurers. These companies pay out huge
sums of money to regular insurance companies when a natural disaster
hits.
Reinsurance and oil move counter to each other because of the weather.
For example, if a hurricane is too tame to disrupt oil supplies (this
just happened with hurricanes Dolly and Edouard), oil falls.
Meanwhile, fewer claims are made upon reinsurance companies. So their
profits and stock prices rise.

• Furnishing companies tie to oil through their relationship with the
housing market. Speculators bet falling oil prices will help cash-
strapped consumers. More spending money equals more furnishings. (Home-
construction stocks also perform well as oil falls. They returned an
average 28.2% during the last three corrections.)
• Finally, waste companies may benefit a little from lower oil prices
because garbage and recycling trucks require large amounts of fuel.
But after further examination, it looks like this sector's price
movements are almost completely unrelated to oil price fluctuations.
Barring a sharp selloff in 1999, this sector has simply been in a long-
term bull market. So yes, it appreciates when oil falls. But it also
appreciates when oil rises!


The Key to Making Money in Oil Stocks This Year...

A Unique Gold Mining Business is Making Some People Rich
So how should you handle a correction in oil? First, avoid buying oil
stocks for the next few months. They are clearly and directly linked
to the price of oil, which I believe will keep falling. Oil services
are particularly vulnerable. You'll be able to buy 'em cheaper before
this correction is over.

Also consider a trade in home furnishings, homebuilders, and insurance
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